An Investment Thesis for the Economy Beyond Constraint

The essays on this site each take one idea and follow it as far as a short piece allows. This is the argument that sits behind them, carried through to what it means for capital. In about twenty pages it sets out the constraint that is holding back the global economy, and what happens to capital when that constraint begins to lift. Nine short sections set out the diagnosis. Three more turn it into ten places to put capital, eleven predictions, each paired with the observation that would prove it wrong, and the institution I intend to build.

It is written for people who have to act on a view of the future: institutional investors, sovereign funds, venture and infrastructure investors, and the founders and policymakers they work with. It assumes a reader who can judge an argument on its merits, so it does not stop to explain familiar background. It takes about an hour to read.

Read the investment thesis (PDF)

The PDF is free to share, quote, translate, excerpt, and redistribute, including commercially, provided the author and the source are named. The argument will improve if more people read it, test it, and disagree with it.